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“If a customer finds black market sites that have all their preferred betting and gaming options, convenience dictates they will transfer a broad range of their expenditure there. Consumer recycling means that banning or restricting key products has a broader distortive impact on the entire market,” the report noted.

Notably for highly engaging verticals light online slots, if players are receiving a smaller-than-expected RTP (return to player), or bonuses have been restricted, they could again transition to an illegal offering where there are no such restrictions.

As has been flagged in previous reports, Regulus highlighted that the top 1% of active customers accounts for almost 50% of black market revenue across Europe. This follows a similar trend across licensed gambling as the report highlights “online gambling is a consumer discretionary expenditure item. This means a large proportion of expenditure is concentrated into a relatively small number of players.”

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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

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Troubles continued as it faced declining growth within its digital business. Reports of failed integrations amid a frenzy of acquisitions further dampened Entain’s reputation and the operator subsequently committed to a major turnaround effort to cut costs and return its digital business to growth.

Efforts to update its legacy tech were also set in motion, and short-lived CEO Gavin Isaacs told iGB at ICE in January 2025 that his biggest challenge in the role was to modernise its core platform.

The operator declined to comment on losing its spot in the FTSE 100, but recent sentiment from the senior management team has been positive in recent quarters as its turnaround efforts have shown green shoots amid growth returning to its core markets. This is despite various regulatory and tax headwinds across Europe.